Implied Expectations

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February 2024

Carvana: Ramping
The sell-side is badly mismodeling growth and operating leverage.
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Implied Expectations
Netflix: The Streaming Wars That Never Started
Netflix reported its fourth-quarter results last week. Here’s the shareholder letter. Netflix is back to firing on all cylinders. I won’t rehash the…
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Implied Expectations

December 2023

Spotify: The New Modus Operandi
The stock is up 148% year-to-date. How much is left?
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Implied Expectations
3

November 2023

Netflix: A Valuation Discussion
What do we have to believe to think NFLX is fairly priced at $435? What future would make it cheap? Or really, really cheap?
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Implied Expectations
Netflix: Welcoming the Arms Dealers
Netflix reported its third-quarter results on October 18th. Here is the shareholder letter. I thought this was a fantastic start to the letter: Revenue…
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Implied Expectations

September 2023

Carvana: On The Verge of Step 3
Can they accelerate volume growth while maintaining good unit economics?
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Implied Expectations
4

June 2023

Carvana: Feedback Loops
On Thursday of last week, Carvana raised its outlook for its second quarter. Ernie spoke at the William Blair conference on the same day to explain…
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Implied Expectations
2
Carvana: Illuminating the Path
When do they press the button?
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Implied Expectations
1

May 2023

Spotify: What's Baked In at $150?
And what would a reasonable base case suggest the stock is worth?
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Implied Expectations
2
Peloton: Opportunistic
Growing subs 120k this year despite cutting media spend $292m YTD, about to ramp marketing and launch a tiered app, and an exec being opportunistic at…
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Implied Expectations
2
Spotify: A Compounding Effect
Accelerating user growth despite lower ad spending, on the cusp of a multiyear margin expansion, with 3x the scale and a lower stock price compared to…
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Implied Expectations
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