Archive - Implied Expectations

I’m shutting down Implied Expectations and issuing pro-rata refunds to all paid subscribers.

Jun 14 •

Implied Expectations

February 2025

Carvana: Still Cheap

It has been a while since my last Carvana post.

Feb 27 •

Implied Expectations

January 2025

Netflix: Levered Buyback In The Cards?

All it took was a $1,000 stock price to finally convince people Netflix is a great business with strong prospects.

Jan 29 •

Implied Expectations

November 2024

Spotify: Investor Fatigue to Exuberance Inside of Two Years

Is the stock still cheap?

Nov 22, 2024 •

Implied Expectations

July 2024

Netflix: A Valuation Update

Incredible business, long runway, and still a cheap stock

Jul 23, 2024 •

Implied Expectations

April 2024

Netflix: A Change in Posture

In this post, I’ll discuss the quarter, the change in reporting, Netflix’s million dollar question, management’s evasiveness on paid sharing and what…

Apr 25, 2024 •

Implied Expectations

February 2024

Carvana: Ramping

The sell-side is badly mismodeling growth and operating leverage.

Feb 8, 2024 •

Implied Expectations

Netflix: The Streaming Wars That Never Started

Netflix reported its fourth-quarter results last week.

Feb 2, 2024 •

Implied Expectations

December 2023

Spotify: The New Modus Operandi

The stock is up 148% year-to-date. How much is left?

Dec 15, 2023 •

Implied Expectations

November 2023

Netflix: A Valuation Discussion

What do we have to believe to think NFLX is fairly priced at $435? What future would make it cheap? Or really, really cheap?

Nov 8, 2023 •

Implied Expectations

Netflix: Welcoming the Arms Dealers

Netflix reported its third-quarter results on October 18th.

Nov 1, 2023 •

Implied Expectations

September 2023

Carvana: On The Verge of Step 3

Can they accelerate volume growth while maintaining good unit economics?

Sep 1, 2023 •

Implied Expectations

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