Implied Expectations

Implied Expectations is dedicated to thoughtful, in-depth research about companies that interest me. Typically, those are high quality businesses with enduring competitive advantages, long growth runways, and honest and effective management teams. In my judgment, these companies are virtually certain to be much larger and more profitable in the long run.

I take a long-term view. I’m not picking stocks for the next year. I am picking businesses that I would like to own for the next decade or longer. Stock prices can be amazingly volatile, which can be a wonderful gift if you can understand businesses, can identify a truly mispriced security, and most importantly, can remain rational during times of both complacency and turmoil.

I manage an investment partnership on behalf of a small group of investors. I’m sharing my research with Implied Expectations subscribers in order to help crystalize my own thoughts through writing, to solicit feedback and alternative views from others, and frankly, to make more money that I can reinvest into my portfolio.

What’s Included?

I tend to write regularly about some of the companies I own, including Amazon, Netflix, and Spotify. I’ll often write my thoughts following their quarterly earnings reports. When I set out to write these, my goal is for even long-time shareholders and followers of these companies to either learn something or consider something from another useful perspective. I don’t want to waste anyone’s time.

Other times, I’ll write something ad hoc that I’m thinking about. I also write about new companies that interest me from time to time, but these posts often take longer to marinate so there is no set schedule.

I like to think about and share my thoughts on products and services, addressable markets, competitive advantages, competitive strategy, capital allocation, and management incentives.

As the name of this Substack suggests, I enjoy studying and estimating the long-term implied expectations that are baked into any given stock price. Because it’s hard for investors to have an intuitive sense of what a stock price implies about a company’s long-term future. That’s why I focus on modeling out several different scenarios that include explicit assumptions for the important value drivers and value the businesses in each scenario. That helps me, and will hopefully help you, better appreciate what exactly we are betting on at any given price.

I consider investing an enormously personal endeavor. Equally smart investors disagree every day. We can’t outsource our confidence or conviction, especially when the shit hits the fan. It needs to come from within. So while I share my thoughts of course, I’m not trying to tell you how to think or which investments will make sense for you. I’d rather you digest it, do you own work, and then decide for yourself.

Who is this for?

The majority of my subscribers are professional or other full-time investors. But it is suitable for any investor who 1) cares about business models, unit economics, strategy, capital allocation, long-term growth opportunities, and 2) invests with a long-term perspective.

Obviously, nothing on this site is investment advice or should be relied upon. It is a starting point for your own due diligence. I make mistakes and will make more.